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Investolution Probabilistic Forecast Charts are generated daily to predict major stock market indices. Each stock market prediction generates a stochastic distribution of the maximum and minimum percent price change expected in the next 40 trading days.
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S&P 500 Index Forecast
S&P 500 Index Prediction Summary
This page contains the prediction for S&P 500 Index minimum and maximum daily closing prices over the next 40 trading days.
It is predicted that S&P 500 Index will not close under 1,235 and over 1,305 between the dates July 3, 2008 and August 28, 2008. This prediction method was accurate for 77.0% and 94.0% of the cases (for minimum and maximum predictions, respectively) within an error margin of +-5% in the past.
This page was last updated on July 03 2008 18:17:23S&P 500 Index 40 Day Prediction Chart
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Rule |
Price |
Min Close |
Min Change |
Min Size |
Max Close |
Max Change |
Max Size |
Score |
|
| MEDIAN | 1,263 | 1,235 | -2.21% | 270 | 1,305 | 3.29% | 269 | 4.99 | |
| Probability of minimum close to be between | Probability of maximum close to be between | ||||||||
| (+/-10%) 1,111 and 1,358 is 98.0% |  |
(+/-10%) 1,174 and 1,435 is 100.0% |  |
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| (+/-5%) 1,173 and 1,297 is 77.0% | |
(+/-5%) 1,239 and 1,370 is 94.0% | |
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| (+/-2%) 1,210 and 1,260 is 37.0% | |
(+/-2%) 1,278 and 1,331 is 53.0% | |
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| (+/-1%) 1,223 and 1,247 is 17.0% | |
(+/-1%) 1,291 and 1,318 is 30.0% | |
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| (+/-0.5%) 1,229 and 1,241 is 7.0% | |
(+/-0.5%) 1,298 and 1,311 is 13.0% | |
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| WMEAN | 1,263 | 1,223 | -3.18% | 262 | 1,307 | 3.47% | 263 | 4.87 | |
| Probability of minimum close to be between | Probability of maximum close to be between | ||||||||
| (+/-10%) 1,100 and 1,345 is 98.0% | |
(+/-10%) 1,176 and 1,437 is 100.0% | |
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| (+/-5%) 1,162 and 1,284 is 80.0% | |
(+/-5%) 1,241 and 1,372 is 93.0% | |
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| (+/-2%) 1,198 and 1,247 is 33.0% | |
(+/-2%) 1,281 and 1,333 is 50.0% | |
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| (+/-1%) 1,211 and 1,235 is 15.0% | |
(+/-1%) 1,294 and 1,320 is 25.0% | |
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| (+/-0.5%) 1,217 and 1,229 is 6.0% | |
(+/-0.5%) 1,300 and 1,313 is 13.0% | |
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| MEAN | 1,263 | 1,223 | -3.16% | 270 | 1,308 | 3.53% | 269 | 4.84 | |
| Probability of minimum close to be between | Probability of maximum close to be between | ||||||||
| (+/-10%) 1,101 and 1,345 is 98.0% | |
(+/-10%) 1,177 and 1,438 is 100.0% | |
||||||
| (+/-5%) 1,162 and 1,284 is 80.0% | |
(+/-5%) 1,242 and 1,373 is 94.0% | |
||||||
| (+/-2%) 1,199 and 1,248 is 31.0% | |
(+/-2%) 1,281 and 1,334 is 51.0% | |
||||||
| (+/-1%) 1,211 and 1,235 is 15.0% | |
(+/-1%) 1,294 and 1,321 is 24.0% | |
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| (+/-0.5%) 1,217 and 1,229 is 5.0% | |
(+/-0.5%) 1,301 and 1,314 is 12.0% | |
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| TOPABOVE80 | 1,263 | No Prediction | No Prediction | 202 | No Prediction | No Prediction | 202 | 4.72 | |